Las Vegas Raiders: 2026 NFL Draft Preview
How They Got Here
The Raiders have been in freefall since their 2021 playoff appearance. A 4-13 record in 2024 under Antonio Pierce — featuring a 10-game losing streak and a quarterback competition that cycled through Minshew, O'Connell, and Ridder — led to Pierce's firing after just one full season. GM Tom Telesco was let go days later. The 2025 season was even worse: Pete Carroll's only year as head coach produced a 3-14 record, the NFL's worst scoring offense (241 points), and dead-last finishes in both scoring offense and total yards. Over the last four seasons (2022-2025), the Raiders are 21-47 (.309) — the worst four-year stretch in franchise history since the move to Las Vegas. Seven of their 14 losses in 2025 were three-score blowouts.
Team Needs
Las Vegas holds the first overall pick after bottoming out at 3-14 in 2025, the franchise's worst season since 2006. The quarterback carousel — Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell, Desmond Ridder in 2024, followed by another lost season in 2025 — has left the Raiders without a franchise passer for three consecutive years. Fernando Mendoza is the consensus answer, and the oddsmakers agree.
Draft Outlook
This is the most straightforward first overall pick in recent draft memory. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana's Heisman Trophy winner and national champion, is a consensus top selection. Ty Simpson (Alabama) is the clear QB2 but he's a tier below Mendoza. The last time a QB prospect was this locked in at #1 was Trevor Lawrence in 2021. Beyond Mendoza, the Raiders need to address the offensive line — they allowed a league-high 64 sacks in 2025 — and free safety, arguably the biggest defensive hole on the roster. Day 2 picks will likely target guard (Emmanuel Pregnon, Oregon) and defensive tackle depth.
Top Prospect Fits
1. Fernando Mendoza
The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner, CFP national champion, and undisputed QB1 of the 2026 class. At 6-5, 225 lbs, Mendoza threw for 3,535 yards with 41 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions on 72% completions across 16 games. His 79.2% adjusted completion rate ranked second in the country. He led Indiana to a road win at Oregon, engineered an 80-yard game-winning drive at Penn State, and overcame being temporarily knocked out of the Big Ten championship game against Ohio State — a résumé that screams franchise quarterback. The Joe Burrow comparison is earned: elite processing, anticipation, and poise under fire. The knock? He completed just 53.2% of his throws when flushed from the pocket, and he took only 3% of snaps under center at Indiana. He'll need to develop his under-center mechanics, but that's a coaching fix, not a talent deficiency. Odds: -20000 (FanDuel), -1000 (BetMGM) to go #1 overall.
2. Arvell Reese
The only other player given even a 1% chance at #1 overall on the prediction markets. At 6-4, 241 lbs with a 4.46 forty, Reese is a Micah Parsons-type hybrid who posted 69 tackles, 10 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, and 18 total pressures in his lone season as a starter at Ohio State. He won Big Ten linebacker of the year and was a first-team All-American. The Raiders won't take him here — they need a QB too badly — but if some unprecedented scenario causes them to pass on Mendoza, Reese is the only realistic alternative. He's -250 to go #2 to the Jets.
3. Spencer Fano
Not a first-pick candidate, but if the Raiders trade down — a live long-shot bet — Fano is the best offensive lineman in the draft. A five-position versatile lineman with polished technique and a top-10 overall grade, Fano would address the 64-sack catastrophe that was Las Vegas' 2025 pass protection. More realistic as a target for a team trading up with the Raiders.
Draft Strategy
Take Fernando Mendoza. That's it. The Raiders have cycled through Minshew, O'Connell, Ridder, and a carousel of veterans, and the result is back-to-back seasons with 13+ losses. Mendoza is the most pro-ready quarterback prospect since Joe Burrow, and he walks into a franchise that hasn't had a legitimate franchise passer since a prime Derek Carr. The only scenario where this pick gets interesting is if a team offers a king's ransom to trade up — but even then, Las Vegas needs a quarterback too badly to move off this spot. After Mendoza, the Day 2 focus should be the offensive line (Emmanuel Pregnon at #36 is the consensus fit) and defensive depth.
Betting Analysis
Mendoza's odds to go #1 overall have shortened to -20000 at FanDuel and -1000 at BetMGM — essentially a certainty, with a 95% implied probability on the prediction market Kalshi. There's no betting value left on Mendoza at #1. The real action is in the prop markets: Will the Raiders trade the pick? (unlikely but a live long-shot bet if a team gets desperate for Mendoza), and which position the Raiders target at pick #36 in Round 2. For bettors, the Raiders-adjacent value lies in the downstream picks: Arvell Reese is -250 to go #2 to the Jets, and the ripple effects of the Mendoza pick on the rest of the top 5 create interesting prop opportunities on the Cardinals (#3), Titans (#4), and Giants (#5) selections.
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