New York Jets: 2026 NFL Draft Preview
How They Got Here
The Aaron Rodgers era ended in disaster. After the Achilles tear that derailed 2023, Rodgers returned in 2024 to lead the Jets to a 5-12 finish — his worst statistical season (17 TDs, 14 INTs, 79.3 passer rating). The 2025 campaign was even worse: a 4-13 record, a five-game losing streak to start the year, and Rodgers benched in Week 11 for Tyrod Taylor after throwing three interceptions in a 34-10 loss to Buffalo. Rodgers refused to accept a backup role and was released in November, ending his Jets tenure at 9-25 as a starter. Robert Saleh was fired in October after a 2-6 start (25-38 career record with the Jets), and Jeff Ulbrich finished as interim HC. GM Joe Douglas was let go in January. The Jets hired Darren Mougey (former Vikings assistant GM) and Liam Coen (Buccaneers OC) to start fresh. Coen's quarterback development reputation was a key factor — the Jets know they need to find their next franchise passer, just not in this draft at this pick.
Team Needs
The Jets hold two first-round picks (#2, #16 via Indianapolis) after their most turbulent season in franchise history — a 4-13 catastrophe that saw Aaron Rodgers benched, then released, and the entire coaching staff fired. New GM Darren Mougey and first-time head coach Liam Coen inherit a roster with genuine offensive talent (Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall) but no quarterback and a defense that ranked 27th in scoring. With Fernando Mendoza locked in at #1 to the Raiders, the Jets will take Arvell Reese at #2 and can address quarterback at #16 with Ty Simpson or Garrett Nussmeier.
Draft Outlook
With Mendoza going #1, the Jets face a choice: reach for the second-best quarterback (Ty Simpson, who most evaluators see as a late first-rounder, not a #2 pick), or take the best non-QB player in the draft. They've wisely chosen the latter. Arvell Reese's hybrid LB/EDGE skill set — 69 tackles, 10 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, and the Big Ten Linebacker of the Year award — is exactly what a rebuilding defense needs. He's been compared to Micah Parsons and Fred Warner, and Jets beat reporters confirm the team is 'locked in' on Reese if Mendoza goes #1. The Jets also hold picks #34 and #66, giving them ammunition to trade back into the late first round for a quarterback like Simpson if they fall in love. But at #2, it's Reese unless something shocking happens.
Top Prospect Fits
1. Arvell Reese
The consensus #2 pick and the best defensive player in the draft. At 6-4, 241 lbs with a 4.46 forty and 43.5-inch vertical, Reese is the exact hybrid linebacker/edge rusher that modern NFL defenses covet. His 2025 season at Ohio State — 69 tackles, 10 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, 18 total pressures, Big Ten Linebacker of the Year — showed he can do it all. The Micah Parsons comparison is real: Reese rushed the passer on 35% of snaps and was equally effective dropping into coverage. His length and closing speed create nightmares for offensive coordinators. Evaluators say he's the safest non-QB pick in the draft with All-Pro upside. Odds: -250 to go #2 overall.
2. David Bailey
The FBS leader in edge pressure rate (21.3%) with 14.5 sacks. If the Jets want a pure pass rusher instead of a hybrid, Bailey is the choice. His speed, bend, and burst off the edge are elite. At 6-4, 251 lbs, the concern is take-on strength against NFL tackles, but his motor and pass-rush moves would immediately upgrade a Jets defense that had just 32 sacks in 2025. Bailey would pair with Jermaine Johnson to give the Jets a dangerous edge duo. Odds: +500 to go #2 (distant second to Reese).
3. Francis Mauigoa
The OT1 in the class — a three-year starter who allowed only 6 pressures last season. If Reese and Bailey are somehow both off the board (extremely unlikely), Mauigoa would protect whoever the Jets eventually find at quarterback. His 6-5, 329 lb frame and Day 1 starter ability make him the safest offensive lineman in the class. More realistic as a trade-down target if the Jets move back and still get an elite player.
4. Ty Simpson
Not at #2 — that's a massive reach based on current evaluations. But the Jets are +225 to take Simpson somewhere in the first two rounds, and #34 is the logical spot. Simpson's calm pocket presence, athletic ability, and 15 career starts give him upside, but he's not polished enough to justify the #2 pick. The smart play is Reese at #2, then circle back for Simpson at #34 or trade into the late first round.
Draft Strategy
Darren Mougey's first draft is about establishing a foundation, not swinging for a home run at a position of desperation. The Jets have been burned by quarterback reaches before (see: Zach Wilson at #2 in 2021). This time, they're taking the best player available — and that's Arvell Reese. With Reese anchoring the defense, the Jets can address quarterback through the 2026 draft's Day 2 (Simpson at #34), free agency (Kirk Cousins types), or the 2027 draft class, which is projected to be stronger at QB. Garrett Wilson is locked in through 2025 on his rookie deal with a fifth-year option, and Breece Hall is under contract through 2026. The offensive weapons will still be there when the Jets find their quarterback. For now, it's about building a defense that can keep games close.
Betting Analysis
This is one of the most locked-in picks in the top 5. Arvell Reese is -250 to go #2 overall, implying a 71.4% probability — the strongest non-Mendoza odds in the entire first round. The only real alternative is David Bailey (EDGE, Texas Tech) at +500 if the Jets prefer a pure pass rusher over Reese's hybrid role. There's almost no value betting Reese straight — the odds are already priced in. The smarter play is a parlay: Mendoza #1 + Reese #2 pays around -110 combined. For prop bettors, the Jets are +145 to draft a linebacker in Round 1 and +300 to trade down from #2 — the trade-down is a live long shot if a team like New Orleans or Cleveland gets desperate for a higher pick. The real Jets-adjacent value is in their Day 2 targets: they're +225 to draft Ty Simpson in the first two rounds, and Simpson at #34 would give them the upside passer they need without reaching at #2.
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